The growing energy and supply chain crisis is unlikely to subside, even if the US and Iran step back from the brink. Specialists caution that reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring infrastructure could require months or years.
As the Iran war nears its 100th day on Sunday, a comforting but flawed assumption has taken root.
Numerous policymakers, businesses, and investors think that a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will rapidly lower energy prices, once stranded oil and gas tankers can eventually depart the Gulf.
Yet leading oil executives, shipping sector figures, and economists are forecasting the reverse. They warn that peace will not instantly restore energy markets and global supply chains to normal. The repercussions, they say, could persist for many additional months and even years.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, the Gulf's biggest oil provider, told investors last month that even if Hormuz reopened immediately, it would "take months for the market to rebalance." If the closure continued for just a few more weeks, Nasser stated that "normalization will last into 2027."
Traffic through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman remains at a small fraction of typical levels, despite a fragile ceasefire and peace negotiations that have encountered repeated obstacles.
Oil prices stay roughly 30% above pre-war levels, keeping gasoline, diesel, and fertilizer costs significantly elevated. These extra expenses are driving up global inflation, disrupting supply chains, and raising food prices worldwide as fertilizer—often derived from natural gas—becomes more costly for farmers.
'Stop-start' Hormuz reopening predicted
Once a peace agreement is reached, shipping companies must build enough confidence to send crews back into the Gulf region, experts say. This could require an observation period of 30 to 45 days. Security measures, including international navy patrols, will also need to be established to guard against any sporadic attacks on vessels.
Shipowners and crews remain highly cautious because strikes on shipping in Hormuz have persisted, with multiple vessels hit just last week alone, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told Bloomberg on May 29, adding that reopening Hormuz would likely be a "stop and start" process.
"It only takes one attack on a ship to put the vast majority of them off," Neil Crosby, head of research at market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities, told DW, adding that shipping firms have replaced Gulf revenues from other voyages, so "why bother taking the risk?"
What's behind China's Strait of Hormuz bypass?
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Lloyd's of London, the world's leading marine insurance market, has seen war-risk premiums for Hormuz transits surge dramatically and remain elevated even after the ceasefire, which took effect on April 8.
Once Hormuz is safe, the many tankers already stranded inside the Gulf will also need to exit safely, as fresh vessels sail from distant ports—some halfway around the world—to load new cargoes.
"The process might take eight weeks, perhaps longer, depending on how long each step takes," warned Crosby.
Safety testing delays war-damaged facilities
Physical damage to Gulf energy infrastructure will introduce another major delay. Dozens of oil fields, pipelines, refineries, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants have been struck, with repair costs estimated in April at between $25 billion and $58 billion, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy.
The worst hit is Qatar's giant Ras Laffan complex, where Iranian strikes knocked out 17% of the country's LNG capacity. Qatari officials have warned that full repairs there could take three to five years to complete.
LNG producers could also spend years untangling contractual disputes over missed deliveries, with backlogs potentially affecting cargo schedules well into 2027, according to lawyers speaking to S&P Global Energy Platts, a leading energy and commodity price benchmark provider.
This includes contested "force majeure" claims—legal declarations that the war made it impossible to deliver LNG as promised.
Other energy facilities face weeks or months of work due to the need for thorough safety checks, complications from long production halts, and replacement parts that were already in short supply before the war.
Gulf sites that have been offline since March have built up pressure, debris, and potential corrosion that require thorough inspections and careful restarts to avoid accidents.
Energy crunch worsens as buffers run dry
Crosby pointed to an "inventory problem" that could emerge by the summer, noting how other parts of the global oil market have been providing temporary relief from the lack of supply from the Gulf.
Since the war began, the United States has boosted oil production to record volumes, while China has reduced its crude imports by 3.5 million barrels per day—relying more heavily on strategic reserves. International Energy Agency members have also drawn from their oil reserves.
These measures, however, cannot last. US oil stocks are set to hit dangerously low levels in the next few months, while China will need to resume imports soon, competing with the rest of the world for limited supplies.
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned last month that while a surplus of oil before the war helped absorb the initial shock, the oil market could enter a "red zone" in July or August due to depleting stocks.
"Once they [oil stocks] start to run dry, the only solution is higher prices because only with higher prices can you start to really destroy demand," Crosby told DW.
Crosby hinted at prices potentially doubling and warned that this path would lead to a global recession.
Edited by: Andreas Becker
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