Armenians to Decide Country's Geopolitical Future on June 7
Armenians are scheduled to vote on June 7 regarding the nation's future geopolitical path. This election will gauge public sentiment in the longstanding Russian ally, where citizens are increasingly looking toward the European Union.
On Sunday, citizens of Armenia are not just choosing a new National Assembly; they are also determining the country's future geopolitical orientation. The choice is between rapid EU integration or a return to Russia's sphere of influence.
A pre-election survey conducted by the Washington-based NGO International Republican Institute (IRI) places Civil Contract, the party of pro-EU Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in the lead, with 32% of respondents indicating they would vote for it.
According to the poll results, the opposition generally holds more pro-Russian views and is represented by three major forces that currently trail far behind the ruling party. Around 7% of voters said they would back the "Strong Armenia" bloc, led by Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian billionaire of Armenian origin. He is currently under house arrest in Yerevan on charges of inciting a violent power grab, following his public support for the Armenian Apostolic Church amid a bitter conflict between church leaders and Prime Minister Pashinyan.
The "Armenia Alliance" political grouping, headed by former president Robert Kocharyan, who is reportedly a friend of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, is expected to receive 4% of the votes. The "Prosperous Armenia" party, founded by business magnate Gagik Tsarukyan, can likely count on support from 2% of Armenian citizens. Tsarukyan’s party is officially partnered with Russia's ruling 'United Russia' party.
The remaining five political parties, including some new protest projects, are polling at only about 1-2%.
Experts caution that these figures should be interpreted carefully due to an unprecedentedly low response rate, with only 16% of respondents agreeing to take part in the poll. This is 19 percentage points lower than before the 2021 snap election. At the same time, 92% of participants expressed their willingness to vote, compared to 72% in 2021. Nearly one in two respondents declined to name their preferred candidate or said they had not yet made a final decision on how to vote.
However, other polls showed different results, giving Pashinyan’s "Civil Contract" party between roughly 26 and 34 percent, suggesting it could have a slightly narrower lead over the opposition.
The New Political Direction: Brussels or Moscow?
The central issue in the election campaign is international relations. The ruling party has moved closer to the European Union, gradually distancing itself from Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance overseen by the Kremlin.
In May 2025, the Armenian parliament adopted a law to initiate the process of joining the EU. During the ongoing election campaign, Nikol Pashinyan pledged to secure a visa-free regime with Europe within the next two years.
In early May, Pashinyan hosted the European Political Community Summit in the Armenian capital, Yerevan. At a press conference following the summit, he stated that his country "is no ally of Russia's" regarding its war against Ukraine.
This rhetoric drew a harsh response from Moscow. At the end of May, President Vladimir Putin threatened to impose tariffs on Armenia and create new legal obstacles for its citizens wishing to work in Russia. He, along with other members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), suggested that Armenia hold a referendum on whether it wants to join the EU or remain part of the EAEU.
As Russia remains the largest market for Armenian agricultural produce, Moscow has attempted to use its trade relations with Yerevan as leverage. Before the elections, Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision imposed multiple restrictions on Armenian imported products, including vegetables, berries, wine, flowers, and fish, under the pretext of alleged violations of sanitary norms.
At the same time, Moscow has notified Yerevan that their agreement on preferential supplies of gas and petroleum products to Armenia could be suspended.
Putin also compared the current political context in Armenia to that in Ukraine in 2014, which he referred to as a "crisis." He warned that adopting European standards would lead to Moscow ending its economic cooperation with Yerevan.
Russia's Attempt to Influence the Elections
Moscow’s interference in the upcoming elections became a topic of heated discussion in Armenia long before the vote.
Tensions in the campaign escalated sharply following the publication by the Russian independent investigative media outlet The Insider about an alleged Russian spy network in Armenia. According to the investigation, Russian billionaire and leader of the "Strong Armenia" party Samvel Karapetyan listed the Information Center of Russia’s Federal Security Service as his employer in his application for a passport issued in 1999.
Armenian security forces have repeatedly opened criminal cases against representatives of the pro-Russian opposition. A major political scandal erupted following the arrest of Andranik Tevanyan, the second candidate on the "Prosperous Armenia" party list. The politician, known for his pro-Russian views, faces charges of treason and espionage. The opposition has described both the cases and the article by The Insider as "political persecution."
A New Chapter in US-Armenian Relations
Beyond its shift toward the EU, Pashinyan's government is deepening its dialogue with Washington. Recently, the two countries signed a charter on a comprehensive strategic partnership and a memorandum on rare earths.
In August 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan paved the way for an ambitious logistics project mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump and informally called Trump’s Route. It aims to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan through Southern Armenia. This agreement marked a significant step toward ending the blockade imposed on landlocked Armenia by neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkey amid a long-standing dispute over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Pashinyan's party describes Armenia's future relations with Russia as 'transforming' rather than allied. The reason, according to the party, is diversification of foreign policy. This change has not gone unanswered by Moscow. The crisis in relations between the two states began escalating in the fall of 2022, when the CSTO and Russia effectively failed to respond to Yerevan's request for military assistance during border clashes with Azerbaijan.
Main opposition forces, on the contrary, act as ideological opponents of the current ruling power. They push for the restoration of a strategic alliance between Armenia and Russia, viewing it as a key security guarantor in the peace process with Azerbaijan.
Controversies Surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh
Nikol Pashinyan made the idea of “real Armenia" central to his election campaign, rejecting revisionists’ calls to restore the country’s “historical borders." These include the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, previously controlled by pro-Armenian forces. Azerbaijan regained control of this breakaway region following the 2023 war, which ended a conflict that had lasted more than three decades.
The opposition criticizes this approach, insisting that Yerevan should advocate for the right of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, who were forced to flee as a result of the war, to return to their homes. The authorities accuse their opponents of pushing the country to the brink of war with Azerbaijan through their hostile rhetoric.
Despite the tensions, 71% of participants in the survey commissioned by IRI believe that the elections will be free and fair, while 61% said the country is moving in the right direction. 17% of respondents consider border security to be the main challenge for their country.
Edited by: Jess Smee