Russia has invaded Ukraine, Israel and the US have attacked Iran, civil conflicts persist across Africa — and what about international law? German researchers present a bleak outlook in their newest annual Peace Report.
"Warlord" is a phrase frequently used in the 1990s in relation to civil wars in Liberia, Afghanistan and Somalia. Back then, it referred to leaders who fought wars to serve their own goals, disregarding the destruction of nations. The 2026 Peace Report from four prominent German peace and conflict research institutes highlights the resurgence of such figures in the 21st century.
"The new warlords undermine the international order," Conrad Schetter, from the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies, stated as he presented the report on Monday in Berlin alongside three other institutes. The conflict researchers listed several figures, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Schetter accused them and others of essentially the same behavior: "Using military force is their preferred way to pursue their interests. In doing so, they disregard international law."
Ursula Schröder, from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH), said: "We don't want to equate anything, but we do see patterns," referring to Putin, Trump, Netanyahu, and other leaders.
Violence as 'a normal instrument of politics'
The authors of the Peace Report stated they identified a pattern in the renewed and preferred use of violent force by certain actors as a "normal instrument of politics." In doing so, these actors also seek "to limit the political sovereignty of other countries," for the sake of profit and expanding influence.
According to the study, this also applies to several Gulf states: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. "They are involved in numerous civil wars, from Libya to Somalia," Schetter said. For them, it is also about advancing their geopolitical, strategic, or economic interests.
Less cooperation and humanitarian aid
This is why the warlord theme runs throughout the study, including in its title, Nicole Deitelhoff from the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) explained: because they accelerate the breakdown of the international order. She pointed to the United Nations as an example.
Deitelhoff said Germany and other European governments would need to do more to reverse the trend. "We urge them to find partners to sustain a system of rules," she said. Deitelhoff and the other experts consider financial cuts to development cooperation and humanitarian aid to be the wrong approach for achieving this. Such withdrawal strengthens crisis dynamics, they said in a joint statement.
More hunger, more sickness, more crime
According to the Peace Report, the real-world consequences are multifaceted: more food crises and famines, or the spread of potentially deadly infections like the current Ebola virus outbreak. Plus: "Taking away aid goes hand in hand with a drastic increase in criminality and armed conflicts, for example, in Haiti, Democratic Republic of Congo, or in South Sudan."
Germany should reverse its cuts to development cooperation, the conflict researchers suggest. That could offer a contrast to the arbitrariness of modern warlords. However, their appeal comes with a warning: "Where development cooperation merely serves to deter migration or secure sources of raw materials, it loses its meaning as a peace policy."
Has Germany squandered trust?
The four institutes recommended another development cooperation path in their report, where the main focus should be on inclusion, human rights, and peace building — in short: cooperative policy. "The bonus is that it strengthens trust in partnerships and in the international order," a joint statement reads.
According to the Peace Report, Germany has largely wasted this trust. Deitelhoff views Berlin's unsuccessful bid for a two-year term on the UN Security Council as symbolic of this. "That is surely also because, in recent years, Germany has often avoided defending international law," she said.
What is Merz's stance on international law?
Deitelhoff referenced the fact that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz avoided definitively describing the abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by US forces as a breach of international law, as other countries did. Instead, Merz said: "The legal classification regarding the US intervention is complex."
He also avoided an unequivocal commitment to international law following the US and Israel's attack on Iran. Now was not the time to "lecture our partners and allies," the Christian Democratic (CDU) politician said. When the two countries were bombing Iranian nuclear sites in 2025, Merz called it the "dirty work Israel is doing for all of us."
New attempt for more arms control?
Peace researcher Deitelhoff was clear about the lesson that Germany should take from its UN Security Council vote defeat: "It is about thinking about how Germany can boost its own profile again."
The Peace Report contains suggestions for how Berlin could achieve this: In times of increasing arms races, the foundation for reliable weapons controls must be built. "They are, as confidence-building measures, essential requirements for peace building," the report reads.
This article was translated from German.