A multibillion-dollar submarine agreement between India and Germany reflects New Delhi's drive for military self-sufficiency and Berlin's increasing engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
India is bolstering its naval forces with a new fleet of German-designed submarines that will be constructed within India. The deal, valued at approximately $8 billion (€7 billion), is anticipated to be finalized this summer, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
This agreement emerges as the Indo-Pacific becomes an increasingly competitive theater, where submarines play a pivotal role. China's expanding naval influence and Pakistan's strengthening military collaboration with Beijing are intensifying India's sense of urgency.
China's ambition to control the seas
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The submarines involved are German Type 214 vessels, manufactured by Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, or TKMS. These are diesel-electric submarines, not nuclear-powered. However, they incorporate crucial technology that enhances their value: air-independent propulsion (AIP).
This technology enables them to remain submerged significantly longer than other conventional submarines, making them more difficult to detect and better suited for operations in congested waters.
India's maritime routes are crucial
India boasts over 11,000 kilometers (approximately 6,840 miles) of coastline, with more than 90% of its trade volume transported by sea. Yet the Indian Ocean contains several chokepoints—narrow passages where maritime traffic can be disrupted. Any threat to these routes can quickly escalate into a danger to India's economy.
"This is why maintaining freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific is so vital for India," said Shairee Malhotra, Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Program at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi. "That's why India seeks to strengthen its naval power. These submarines would represent a significant leap forward in India's undersea warfare capabilities."
Submarines are effective in this setting because they can patrol discreetly, monitor enemy vessels, and create uncertainty for larger surface fleets. During a crisis, they can serve as a deterrent.
"Submarines are becoming one of the most critical assets in terms of maritime power in the Indo-Pacific," said Sidharth Kaushal, Senior Research Fellow for sea power at the Royal United Services Institute in London. One reason, he noted, is that "the surface is increasingly becoming a heavily contested and even denied space."
The significance of AIP
Traditional diesel-electric submarines must regularly surface to intake air for their engines, making them more visible and vulnerable. AIP alters this dynamic. "What AIP enables a submarine to do is stay submerged for extended periods without needing to snorkel like traditional conventional submarines," Kaushal explained.
The German Type 214 utilizes fuel cells to generate electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen. This process produces power quietly and without exhaust, allowing the submarine to remain underwater for weeks. "It gives it some characteristics of a nuclear submarine while retaining the benefits of a conventionally powered system," Kaushal said.
Such submarines are smaller and more affordable than nuclear-powered ones. They are also extremely quiet—a major advantage in shallow or congested waters. They can pose a sudden threat to much larger naval forces.
During a US-led naval exercise in 2005, a small Swedish AIP submarine evaded heavy defenses and achieved simulated strikes on a US aircraft carrier—twice. This appears to be exactly the capability India seeks as it updates its fleet.
"For now, India has a relatively small submarine fleet, most of which dates back to Soviet times. So these are quite old," Malhotra said. "What India truly needs is to modernize these naval capabilities."
China and Pakistan fuel India's worries
India's naval expansion is closely tied to its two nuclear-armed rivals: China and Pakistan. China now operates the world's largest navy by vessel count, with around 400 ships. Its primary focus remains Taiwan and the South China Sea, but Beijing has also broadened its presence elsewhere. "We've seen China's growing naval footprint in the Indian Ocean, an increasingly contested theater, as well as Pakistan's expanding naval capabilities," Malhotra said.
Pakistan is upgrading its submarine fleet with Chinese assistance. In 2015, Islamabad signed a deal worth approximately $5 billion for eight advanced submarines from China. Four are being constructed in China and four in Pakistan, using Chinese technology. These Hangor-class submarines are derived from the Chinese Type 039, known by NATO as the Yuan class. They also feature AIP.
Pakistan sources around 80% of its weapons from China. This deepening military relationship has altered the balance in South Asia and heightened pressure on India.
Pakistan’s weapons, made in China
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The risks are not hypothetical. In May 2025, India and Pakistan engaged in a four-day conflict, raising concerns of a broader war. India and China have also clashed along their disputed Himalayan border.
India turns West—but not away from Russia
With Pakistan allied with China, India is increasingly seeking partners in the West. For decades, the country followed a very different strategy. From the mid-1960s onward, India depended heavily on Soviet weaponry. Much of its military equipment still comes from Russia, including warships, aircraft, and armored vehicles.
However, India has gradually diversified over the past decade. France, Israel, and the United States have become more significant defense partners. Germany now aims to be part of this shift.
"This deal is commercially significant for Germany. But geopolitics clearly sets the context," said Nina Haase, DW's Chief Political Correspondent. She accompanied German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on a 2023 visit to India, where he held high-level discussions with Indian defense officials and political leaders.
"This visit definitely showed a willingness to invest political capital," Haase said. "Germany does want to establish a stronger foothold in the Indo-Pacific at a time when global power dynamics are shifting and maritime security is becoming more contested. Supporting India's naval capabilities aligns with Germany's broader interests in freedom of navigation, secure sea lanes, and a rules-based order."
She added that the deal gives India "alternatives to Russian goods," which is important to Berlin as Russia continues its war against Ukraine. "India is increasingly seen here in Berlin as a stabilizing force in the Indo-Pacific," Haase said.
Malhotra agreed that Berlin was attempting to steer New Delhi away from Moscow. But she cautioned against interpreting the submarine deal as a complete break with Russia. "India is hedging rather than fully replacing Russia," she said.
India continues to purchase and operate Russian systems. In March 2026, India signed a $238.5 million contract to acquire Russian Shtil-1 air defense missiles for its navy.
"Russian platforms remain important because they are more cost-effective. There are also fewer conditions attached regarding things like technology transfers," Malhotra said.
Why Germany is willing to share sensitive technology
The planned deal between India and Germany involves more than just selling submarines. The Type 214 vessels would be built in Mumbai by Indian engineers trained by German specialists. This entails technology transfer—a sensitive aspect of defense cooperation.
"Submarine technology has traditionally been a closely guarded domain," Malhotra said. "India's goal is to build domestic expertise in constructing submarines and foster the growth of the local defense industry, while also reducing reliance on foreign suppliers."
But many specifics of the submarine deal remain unclear—particularly how much technology will actually be transferred. Germany will likely want to safeguard its most sensitive components and intellectual property. India, meanwhile, will aim to produce as much as possible domestically. "The details of this will matter greatly in terms of which technology is transferred and which capabilities will come directly from Germany," Kaushal said.
"Technology transfer always creates interdependence—industrial, political, strategic," Haase said. "This kind of cooperation does strengthen trust and makes the relationship harder to reverse. From Berlin's perspective, this is about strategic trust and long-term alignment," Haase said. "Weapons deals do bind you to another country for quite some time."
A deal with constraints
For India, the submarine deal promises stronger deterrence, new jobs, and greater self-reliance. It aligns with New Delhi's effort to secure its maritime backyard at a time of increasing competition for sea power in the Indo-Pacific.
For Germany, the agreement offers substantial commercial benefits and an opportunity to play a larger role in Indo-Pacific security—a region Berlin has identified as strategically important.
But there are clear limitations. India is hedging, and Germany may be overestimating the political influence it can gain from the deal. India's foreign policy is shaped by a long tradition of non-alignment. Purchasing German submarines will not transform the country into an exclusive partner of Germany, the EU, or NATO.
The Type 214 submarines could significantly enhance India's position at sea. Yet the broader trend is more concerning. The Indian Ocean is becoming more crowded and more heavily armed. More submarines mean more patrols, closer encounters, and a higher risk of miscalculation. What begins as deterrence could escalate into conflict—with consequences that are difficult to manage.